Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0617
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Apr 26 2023 02:28:57

ACUS11 KWNS 260228
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260228=20
TXZ000-OKZ000-260400-

Mesoscale Discussion 0617
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0928 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2023

Areas affected...TX Panhandle into northwest TX/far southwest OK

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 166...167...

Valid 260228Z - 260400Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 166, 167
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for very large hail, isolated severe gusts, and
possibly a tornado continues, with some threat spreading
southeastward with time.

DISCUSSION...Three widely spaced supercells are ongoing at 0215 UTC
from the TX South Plains into the Big Country region, with the cells
northeast of Lubbock and San Angelo occasionally producing very
large hail. MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg, effective shear of 40-50 kt,
and favorable storm mode will continue to support a very large hail
threat in the short term, with localized severe gusts also possible.
A continued increase in low-level flow/shear has been noted in the
KLBB and KDYX VWPs, and a tornado cannot be ruled out with any of
these cells.=20

Increasing MLCINH will likely lead to a weakening trend with these
cells later tonight. Increasing low-level warm advection may support
elevated storm development farther east into western north TX and
southwest OK, with some hail potential. However, at this time,
downstream watch issuance is considered unlikely, though local
extensions to WW 166 and 167 may be needed depending on the
longevity of the ongoing supercells.

...Dean/Grams.. 04/26/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9bMyNOXGoNce5Y0GsYX17FGqX1E-BJiHoX30BZKYhnmYnm-UFJraVkpPqwc9ERvWKU8LUhCAk=
fR6p-AAK5rzUEVLfHE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   33970154 34330103 34579967 34449940 33489898 32399868
            31689895 31519999 32550108 33500136 33620141 33970154=20


=3D =3D =3D
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