Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Apr 26 2023 00:48:56

ACUS01 KWNS 260048
SWODY1
SPC AC 260047

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0747 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2023

Valid 260100Z - 261200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms remain possible tonight over parts of the
southern Plains, with a risk for large to very large hail, damaging
winds, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes.

....01z Update...

Pronounced upper low is digging southeast into the Four Corners with
high-level diffluent flow aloft now evident downstream over the
southern High Plains. Robust deep convection is developing ahead of
this feature, especially across the TX Panhandle into the Big
Country west of Abilene. Over the next several hours LLJ will
strengthen across west TX. This should aid southeast propagation of
ongoing convection, in addition to new development along/north of
the warm front. It appears an MCS will eventually evolve along the
nose of the LLJ which should progress into northwest TX/southern OK
later tonight. Shear remains strong and low-level moisture continues
to increase into this region. Discrete supercells remain possible
across this region, especially this evening, until storm mergers/MCS
evolves. At that time a larger complex of storms should be the
primary mode.

Farther southeast, a weak short-wave trough is ejecting across
southeast TX. This feature was partly responsible in the development
of a small cluster of storms along the warm front between Austin and
La Grange. This activity may struggle in the wake of the short wave,
but convection should continue to lift north as the warm front
advances inland. Primary focus for organized convection will be
considerably northwest of this convection in proximity of the
strengthening LLJ.

...Darrow.. 04/26/2023

$$

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