Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0616
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Apr 25 2023 23:52:24

ACUS11 KWNS 252352
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252351=20
TXZ000-OKZ000-260115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0616
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0651 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2023

Areas affected...TX/OK Panhandles into the TX South Plains/northwest
TX

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 166...167...

Valid 252351Z - 260115Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 166, 167
continues.

SUMMARY...Widely scattered severe hail/wind remains possible this
evening, along with the potential for a tornado or two.

DISCUSSION...Widely scattered thunderstorm clusters are ongoing at
2354 UTC across the TX/OK Panhandles into the South Plains region,
with other attempts at development southeast of WW 166 near Snyder,
TX. The northern Panhandle cluster is ongoing near and just north of
the surface warm front, with MUCAPE up to 1000 J/kg and moderate
deep-layer shear supportive of some hail with the strongest
updrafts.=20

The cluster south of Amarillo has evolved into a single large
supercell which is propagating southeastward. Some increase in
low-level flow/shear has been noted on the AMA VWP, and a tornado
cannot be ruled out with this cell, but weak storm-relative flow in
the 2-4 km AGL layer and marginal low-level moisture will mitigate
this threat to some extent.=20

Another supercell has recently intensified south of Lubbock, and
this cell will pose a large hail threat as it propagates
southeastward. This cell may eventually move out of WW 166, though=20
any threat south of the watch is expected to remain very isolated.=20

Finally, thunderstorms are gradually intensifying north of
Sweetwater, TX. Any supercell that matures in this area will move
into a somewhat more unstable environment compared to areas farther
west, with deep-layer shear expected to remain favorable for
supercells. Large hail would likely be the primary threat, though a
tornado will also be possible if a supercell survives into a
somewhat more moist environment downstream. WW 167 was just issued
to address the severe threat in this area.

...Dean/Grams.. 04/25/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5a1CJVjXMjnucHZQi5aBoLyYHmBhRucwAhFPvG_s2AGFc4tYgJ0qmHIApNlDYR3gkCJ9OpCDZ=
dJgFFQMt1s-h9kyFWk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

LAT...LON   36510081 33809935 32219930 31949967 31880041 32030090
            32520106 32750190 32870215 33060210 35640265 36670251
            36890183 36770117 36510081=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.