Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0613
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Apr 25 2023 20:01:52

ACUS11 KWNS 252001
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252001=20
TXZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-252200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0613
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0301 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2023

Areas affected...Southern High Plains

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 252001Z - 252200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Widely scattered storms may produce isolated large hail
and damaging winds. Limited moisture/buoyancy should keep storm
intensity marginal. A watch appears unlikely at this time.

DISCUSSION...As the upper-level trough approaches the southern High
Plains this afternoon, convection along a surface trough/developing
dryline has continued to slowly deepen. Moisture is very limited
within the region as dewpoints are in the upper 30s F to mid 40s F.
Lapse rates at low/mid-levels are steep enough to support isolated
large hail and damaging winds despite the modest MLCAPE (near 500
J/kg). Storm intensity is expected to remain marginal until this
activity encounters greater low-level moisture to the east. A watch
is not currently expected.

...Wendt/Gleason.. 04/25/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8zLADEaWbP4rhsTXmUk1dSyWNpJbfn7UQWQ3vUWZbLW7uSRGGInGij9-xqqf8zXY8kvBosOI7=
RKtyY6DAp3Vgec_Cb0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   34230377 37030429 37610401 37690312 36170214 35180196
            34400256 34030325 34230377=20


=3D =3D =3D
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