Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Apr 25 2023 17:21:53 ACUS02 KWNS 251721 SWODY2 SPC AC 251720 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS... ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ....SUMMARY... Severe storms producing damaging winds and very large hail are expected over much of northern Texas Wednesday afternoon and evening. Isolated to scattered severe storms producing hail may also occur from the Florida Peninsula into central Georgia. ....Synopsis... A southern-stream shortwave trough, and accompanying mid-level speed max, is expected to move from the southern High Plains into the southern Plains on Wednesday. This system will initially be positively titled, but should trend towards a more neutral tilt with time. Low-level moisture advection is anticipated across TX throughout the day today (Tuesday), with this moist air mass expected to remain in place as the shortwave pushes through on Wednesday. Surface low associated with the shortwave will likely begin the period over northwest TX, before then moving eastward along the warm front across north TX just ahead of the shortwave as it moves through. Dryline extending southward from this low will make some eastward progress across TX Big County and southwest TX, before likely stalling during the evening. A cold front will then sweep southward/southeastward across west TX and through much of north and central TX tomorrow evening and overnight. Severe thunderstorms are possible along the dryline across north TX, with additional strong to severe storms also possible along the cold front as it pushes through. ....Southern Plains... As discussed in the synopsis, a surface low is forecast to begin the period over the TX Big Country, before gradually moving eastward along the warm front. This warm front is expected to be quite sharp, but guidance still varies on its location tomorrow afternoon. Given that widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected across OK from overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning, a more southerly warm front location is currently preferred, likely in the vicinity of the Red River. As such, the greatest severe potential will likely exist from northwest TX into north TX Wednesday afternoon and evening. Here, seasonably cool mid-level temperatures atop mid 60s dewpoints will result in moderate to strong buoyancy. General expectation is for thunderstorm initiation to occur along the dryline during the early afternoon as mesoscale ascent attendant to the dryline is augmented by increasing large-scale ascent. This general expectation may be complicated by residual outflow that may be in place over north/central TX in the wake of early morning storms. However, uncertainty regarding the location and depth of any outflow limits predictability at this forecast range. Initial development will likely be supercellular, supported by increasing mid-level flow and strong deep-layer shear. Steep lapse rates will favor large to very large (i.e. greater than 2 inches in diameter) with these initial supercells. Low-level flow is expected to be relatively modest, limiting low-level shear and potentially keeping the tornado threat low. However, given the potential for interaction with residual outflow and/or the warm front, some higher threat may materialize in more confined corridors. Given previously mentioned uncertainties regarding outflow and warm front positions, will defer any increase in tornado probabilities to later outlooks. Upscale growth is anticipated after a few hours after initiation, with the resulting MCS tracking eastward/southeastward across east TX and northern LA. Marginal wind probabilities were extended into far west-central MS to account for the potential that the convective line will be in that vicinity early Thursday morning. ....GA/FL... Seasonably cold mid-level temperatures are expected across GA and FL on Wednesday, with 500-mb temperatures ranging from -14 deg C across south FL to -16 deg C over southern GA. Modest mid-level flow and forcing for ascent is also anticipated as a weak shortwave trough moves over the peninsula. This large-scale ascent in tandem with forcing along sea breeze boundaries is expected to result in scattered thunderstorm coverage. Hail and/or damaging gusts are possible with any more robust/longer-lived storms. ...Mosier.. 04/25/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .