Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Apr 25 2023 08:49:19

ACUS48 KWNS 250849
SWOD48
SPC AC 250847

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0347 AM CDT Tue Apr 25 2023

Valid 281200Z - 031200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Models have come into good agreement in depicting a strong upper
trough diving south across the length of the eastern Rockies/High
Plains on Friday/D4, with an associated strong cold front plunging
south across the Plains. Destabilization is expected ahead of this
front into central TX Friday afternoon, and scattered storms are
likely. However, they will quickly become undercut by the cold air,
rendering them elevated. At least some low-end severe potential will
exist though, perhaps brief periods of hail. Predictability is too
low for an area on Friday, given the marginal severe threat and
history of mistimed cold fronts with the models.

Farther east on Friday/D4, a progressive, low-amplitude feature will
likely be exiting the Southeast, and early period storms will be
possible, but with only modest instability forecast.

For Saturday/D5, the deep southern Plains trough is forecast to
pivot eastward, with predictability issues apparent in the ensemble
output. Depending on how amplified the wave becomes, a sufficient
warm sector could move onshore from the northeastern Gulf of Mexico
into parts of AL, GA, and FL for a severe risk.

Behind this system and from Sunday/D6 onward, severe potential
appears low given a stable air mass over most of the CONUS.

...Jewell.. 04/25/2023

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