Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Apr 25 2023 05:55:51 ACUS02 KWNS 250555 SWODY2 SPC AC 250554 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Tue Apr 25 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN TEXAS... ....SUMMARY... Severe storms producing damaging winds and wind-driven hail are expected over much of northern Texas Wednesday afternoon and evening. Isolated severe storms producing hail may also occur from the eastern Florida Peninsula into central Georgia. ....Synopsis... On Wednesday, a positively tilted shortwave trough will move from NM into western TX during the day, then eastward across OK and northern TX overnight. This will provide strengthening flow aloft as well as gradual height falls. By 12Z Thursday, the stronger winds aloft will make it as far east as the lower MS valley. At the surface, weak low pressure will exist over west-central TX, ahead of a cold front that will surge rapidly south across the South Plains and northwest TX. A warm front will likely stall south of the Red River over northern TX and into northern LA by 00Z. Robust low-level moisture will be in place across the warm sector, with mid 60s F dewpoints common over TX and upper 60s spreading farther inland overnight. Winds around 850 mb will not be very strong, only averaging 20-30 kt. But the combination of cool temperatures aloft and a moist air mass will lead to a relatively large area of strong instability, with storms focused both along the warm front and the surging cold front from afternoon through evening. ....TX... Heating of a moist air mass will lead to a large area of 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE during the afternoon, ahead of the cold front and south of the stalling front over northeast TX. Storms are expected to form relatively early by 21Z over northwest TX, with a additional storms extending southwestward along the cold front toward a low-level lapse-rate plume. Despite modest low-level flow, long hodographs combined with ample outflow will favor severe storms, eventually accelerating and merging into an MCS. Very large hail will be possible during the first few hours, evolving into a damaging-wind threat extending east/southeast across northern TX. A tornado or two will be most probable with the early discrete activity, and with storms that track along the stalled front extending eastward. Wind-driven hail will be possible even as storms merge or bow, given strong instability, long hodographs and cool profiles aloft. Models also indicate strengthening flow around 850 mb due to convective feedback, another sign of concentrated severe storm potential. Elsewhere, widespread precipitation including thunderstorms will occur much of the day across OK north of the boundary. Elevated instability, as well as strong deep-layer shear, will favor severe hail. ....FL... Cool air aloft will remain over the region, with 500 mb temperatures as cold as -15 C from northern FL into GA. Despite lack of large-scale ascent, strong heating will result in weak low pressure over the interior Peninsula, and will aid storm development as the air mass becomes uncapped. Winds in the low levels will be weak, but increasing winds from the mid to upper levels may aid storm longevity. Isolated hail is expected, along with locally strong wind gusts. ...Jewell.. 04/25/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .