Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0609
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Apr 24 2023 17:39:45

ACUS11 KWNS 241739
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241739=20
FLZ000-241945-

Mesoscale Discussion 0609
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2023

Areas affected...Central/South FL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 241739Z - 241945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase across
central and south FL this afternoon. Hail and/or strong downbursts
are possible with any more robust storms.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have been ongoing along the
northwestward/westward progressing sea breeze moving off the
southeast FL coast. Updraft duration has been relatively brief
within these generally shallow storms thus far. A general increase
in storm coverage, duration and intensity/depth is anticipated over
the next few hours as large-scale ascent and stronger upper flow
move over the peninsula ahead of a shortwave trough. Instability is
expected to build over the next few hours as well, as surface
temperatures increase beneath relatively cool temperatures aloft
(i.e. -12 to -13 deg C at 500 mb).=20

Convective evolution this afternoon could be complex, as the
thunderstorms associated with the shortwave initially develop over
the west coast and move eastward, interacting with the sea breeze
boundary already in place over central FL. Given the anticipated
buoyancy, updrafts will already be strong, with some potential for
additional strengthening as boundary and cell interactions occur.
Hail may occur within these strong updrafts, with damaging
water-loaded downbursts possible as well.

...Mosier/Hart.. 04/24/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5xkS9b17_6VfXB2wwSiQ9nrm0NGS3shq7SBXDv0wgtyTfgMP_ciDG6maTMhPGqpXo4Pp9dHSf=
pZ9zyOuqwiRs5fKmNE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

LAT...LON   25548000 25418039 25588078 25988109 26578152 27458200
            28608168 28728056 26137985 25548000=20


=3D =3D =3D
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