Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Apr 24 2023 16:01:45

ACUS01 KWNS 241601
SWODY1
SPC AC 241600

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1100 AM CDT Mon Apr 24 2023

Valid 241630Z - 251200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA...

....SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms may occur this afternoon over parts of
central/south Florida, with large hail and damaging winds possible.

....Central/South FL...
Morning water vapor loop shows a progressive mid-level shortwave
trough moving across the eastern Gulf of Mexico toward the FL
Peninsula.  Large scale forcing for ascent will overspread FL in the
next few hours as diurnal heating maximizes.  This should lead to
numerous showers and thunderstorms.  Forecast soundings show
relatively cool temperatures aloft (-12C at 500mb), along with rich
low-level moisture and robust daytime heating.  Low-level winds are
relatively weak, but mid/upper level winds are sufficiently strong
to support a combination of multicell and occasional supercell
structures capable of large hail and damaging winds.  One forecast
concern is that rapid storm development during the mid-afternoon may
quickly exhaust the available instability, leading to a rather short
window of opportunity for severe storms.

....AZ/NM...
Clear skies are present this morning over much of AZ/NM, where steep
low-level lapse rates and marginal CAPE values are expected to
develop later today.  Most model guidance agrees that scattered
fast-moving showers and thunderstorms will form from northeast AZ
into central/northern NM, where relatively strong westerly
deep-layer flow is present.  This environment appears favorable for
a few dry microbursts, however very limited coverage and low
confidence precludes a 5% severe wind outlook.

...Hart/Wendt.. 04/24/2023

$$

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