Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Apr 24 2023 08:30:16

ACUS48 KWNS 240830
SWOD48
SPC AC 240828

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0328 AM CDT Mon Apr 24 2023

Valid 271200Z - 021200Z

....DISCUSSION...
For the period Thursday/D4 through Friday/D5, a positive-tilt upper
trough is forecast to move across the Southeast with west/southwest
500 mb winds around 40 kt. At the surface, weak low pressure may
develop over the lower MS Valley and move toward the OH Valley as
mid 60 F dewpoints return to the Gulf Coast states. This type of
pattern typically has low predictability due to the potential for
widespread precipitation, and a nebulous shortwave with uncertain
amplitude. ECMWF ensemble mean fields support this notion, with
MUCAPE generally 500-1000 J/kg and areas of storms throughout the
period. However, areas of severe could be added as the event nears
and predictability increases.

From Saturday/D6 and beyond, severe chances dwindle as both ECMWF
and GEFS members depict a deep upper trough developing over the
eastern CONUS, resulting in relatively cool and stable conditions.

...Jewell.. 04/24/2023

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