Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Apr 24 2023 07:31:15

ACUS03 KWNS 240731
SWODY3
SPC AC 240730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Mon Apr 24 2023

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN TEXAS AND ARKLATEX...

....SUMMARY...
Scattered storms may produce large hail and damaging winds over much
of central into northern Texas on Wednesday. Isolated severe storms
producing hail may also occur over the Florida Peninsula.

....Synopsis and Discussion...
On Wednesday, an upper trough over NM will move eastward across TX
and OK, maintaining a positive tilt. Strengthening 500 mb winds to
50 kt will be common over this region, with most of the cooling
aloft focused from northwest TX into OK. At the surface, a weak area
of low pressure will exist over west-central TX Wednesday morning,
and will be quickly dissipated by a surge of cold air from the
north. This will leave an inverted trough from central into
northeast TX by afternoon.

Little in the way of mass response to the upper trough is noted by
models in the low levels, with initial 850 mb winds of 25-30 kt
weakening over the warm sector during the day. Modest theta-e
advection will occur from northeast TX into far southern AR,
resulting in widespread rain and thunderstorms across OK and AR.

A plume of steep low-level lapse rates is forecast to emanate from
southwest into central TX ahead of the cold front, and this will be
a likely area for late afternoon storms. Another favored area will
be where the cold front intersects the stationary boundary over
northeast TX/Arklatex.

Initial storms over central TX may produce damaging hail due to
MLCAPE around 2500 J/kg, steep lapse rates and lengthy hodographs,
but weak low-level flow suggests the supercell threat may be
short-lived, with locally damaging winds also becoming likely.
Storms in the SRH-rich area near the boundary farther north could
produce a tornado or two before crossing into the cooler air mass to
the north. Otherwise, elevated storms with hail threat will be
possible across OK into AR with MUCAPE over 1000 J/kg and effective
shear to 50 kt.

....FL...
Impressive midlevel lapse rates of 8.0 C/km will remain in place
across FL on Wednesday as a subtle midlevel trough moves across the
eastern Gulf of Mexico and Peninsula. By virtue of strong heating
and an uncapped air mass, at least isolated storms are expected to
form where convergence can be maximized during the afternoon.
Predictability is low regarding where the maximum threat area will
be, but long, straight hodographs will favor cells capable of hail.

...Jewell.. 04/24/2023

$$

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