Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Apr 24 2023 05:33:45 ACUS02 KWNS 240533 SWODY2 SPC AC 240532 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Mon Apr 24 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS... ....SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible mainly over parts of Texas on Tuesday, with a risk of damaging gusts, large hail and perhaps a tornado. ....Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move southeastward across UT and CO during the day, and into NM through Wednesday morning. Ahead of this wave, 500-mb westerlies around 30 kt will exist over much of the southern Plains, with stronger flow from AZ and NM southeastward into far southern TX. Leading the main trough, a subtle wave will move east across TX during the day, with some cooling aloft. At the surface, low pressure will develop over eastern NM and western TX during the day, moving slowly into west-central TX overnight. A warm front will lift north over TX and southern LA, but will likely stall from just south of the Red River into central LA. A cold front will move south across the TX Panhandle and into the South Plains overnight as the low shifts eastward. Increasing moisture over the southern Plains will lead to a large area of instability, with subtle forcing mechanisms leading to scattered strong to severe storms. Elsewhere, cool temperatures aloft may lead to isolated afternoon severe storms over southern FL. ....Parts of central/east-central TX... Robust moisture return will occur on Tuesday with mid to upper 60s dewpoints over southern into central TX, roughly up the I-35 corridor. Although lift will be minimal, a deepening moist boundary layer and heating will lead to a conditional risk of supercells producing damaging hail and perhaps a tornado. Some of the hail could be very large due to steep lapse rates aloft and long hodographs. Effective SRH over 200 m2/s2 and the moist air mass will conditionally favor tornadoes as well. Model trends suggest at least isolated activity will occur during the afternoon, most likely tied to the surface theta-e plume. Elevated storms will also be likely north of the stalling front near the Red River, with hail also possible over southern OK. ....Central High Plains into northwest TX... Steepening lapse rates with the upper trough and heating should lead to scattered storms developing during the afternoon from southeast CO into the TX Panhandle. Cool air north of the low may mitigate wind potential, but steep lapse rates and sufficient instability will favor hail. Strong wind gusts are most likely over southern areas, where low-level lapse rates will be maximized. ....Parts of the southern FL Peninsula... A zonal flow regime will exist over FL on Tuesday with winds increasing from 30 kt at 500 mb to over 90 kt at 300 mb. Despite the lack of height falls, cold air aloft will already be in place, resulting in steep midlevel lapse rates. Strong heating combined with upper 60s F dewpoints will lead to MUCAPE over 1500 J/kg across the southeastern Peninsula, and this is also where a weak low may enhance convergence during the afternoon. At least isolated storms are expected to form, with straight hodographs favoring marginal hail. Winds below 500 mb will be relatively weak, thus, any severe threat should remain disorganized. ...Jewell.. 04/24/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .