Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Apr 24 2023 04:43:14

ACUS01 KWNS 240443
SWODY1
SPC AC 240441

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1141 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2023

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...

....SUMMARY...
Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms are expected across the
central and southern Florida Peninsula Monday. The primary risks are
hail and gusty winds.

....Florida Peninsula...

Long-lived MCS is progressing across the central Gulf Basin early
this morning in association with a notable low-latitude short-wave
trough. Current speed, and latest model guidance, suggest this
feature will approach the FL Peninsula after 18z. While low-level
response is not expected to be particularly noteworthy,
southeasterly low-level flow should result in some boundary-layer
convergence across the western peninsula, in addition to east coast
sea breeze activity.

There is some uncertainty regarding the evolution of ongoing MCS and
how significant this complex will be as it approaches the Gulf
Coast. Latest high-res guidance suggest the MCS will weaken
considerably and only weak showers/convective debris will survive
prior to the short wave. Boundary-layer heating across the peninsula
will prove instrumental in destabilization. While significant
mid-high clouds will overspread much of FL, modest low-level heating
should aid buoyancy such that robust updrafts can be expected. In
the absence of an organized MCS advancing inland, scattered
thunderstorms should develop across central/southern parts of the
peninsula fairly early. Forecast 500mb temperatures will be
seasonally cool (-12C) with modest mid-level flow, but weak
low-level shear. Profiles suggest some supercell threat in addition
to multi-cell clusters. Hail and wind gusts are the primary
concerns. Will maintain 5% severe probabilities for wind/hail at
this time due to the uncertainty of the ongoing MCS and its
downstream influence on the FL Peninsula. Some consideration for a
SLGT Risk may be warranted in subsequent outlooks.

...Darrow/Bentley.. 04/24/2023

$$

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