Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Apr 23 2023 20:29:39 FOUS30 KWBC 232029 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 428 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2023 Day 1 Valid 1946Z Sun Apr 23 2023 - 12Z Mon Apr 24 2023 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. Day 2 Valid 12Z Mon Apr 24 2023 - 12Z Tue Apr 25 2023 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. ....2030Z Update... The Marginal Risk for portions of the Central and Southern Plains has been removed. As noted in the prior forecast, widespread, organized convection is not anticipated and QPF amounts in the model guidance have continued to trend downward. The flash flood threat from any isolated stronger storms producing locally heavier rain will also be limited by the very dry antecedent conditions across the region. Any rainfall will more likely be beneficial. Putnam ....Previous Discussion... No significant changes were made to the Marginal Risk area encompassing much of KS and OK with this morning's forecast. A weak shortwave will move across the Marginal Risk area, which will support scattered showers developing along a front. The showers will be slow-moving, but will only support light rain. Behind this initial round, isolated to widely scattered stronger storms are expected to develop, particularly across the TX and OK Panhandles region. While these storms will be isolated, any stronger ones have the potential to cause isolated flash flooding if they move over sensitive areas. This is most likely overnight Monday night, as it will take until Monday night for any instability (which will still remain under 500 J/kg) to advect northward into this region. This remains a low-end Marginal Risk, as much of the area has well below normal soil moisture supporting high FFGs, and organized convection is not expected. A downgrade of the Marginal Risk area is possible with future updates. Wegman Day 3 The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 2030Z. Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8lGp7aM8E77gYN8XDsoBBwWNSZjLk8jSks6B3bj8wolF= RXVyYmcpsrGEieeMWaoRphsunDVsE5Ri0-eDMcx-syZrzyA$=20 Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8lGp7aM8E77gYN8XDsoBBwWNSZjLk8jSks6B3bj8wolF= RXVyYmcpsrGEieeMWaoRphsunDVsE5Ri0-eDMcx-s50UzAc$=20 Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8lGp7aM8E77gYN8XDsoBBwWNSZjLk8jSks6B3bj8wolF= RXVyYmcpsrGEieeMWaoRphsunDVsE5Ri0-eDMcx-_KbBGuY$=20 $$ =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .