Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Apr 23 2023 19:41:44

ACUS01 KWNS 231941
SWODY1
SPC AC 231940

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0240 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2023

Valid 232000Z - 241200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms has diminished across the lower
Rio Grande Valley, and now appears negligible across the U.S. late
this afternoon through tonight.

....20Z Update...
The more intense leading line and gust front of the
south-southeastward propagating, organized mesoscale convective
system have progressed offshore of lower Texas coastal areas, and
south of the lower Rio Grande Valley.  However, the trailing
stratiform precipitation and associated lightning may continue to
impact coastal areas another hour or two.

Elsewhere, some adjustments to the categorical risk of thunderstorms
(greater than 10 percent probability) have been made to account for
ongoing trends concerning destabilization and the progression of the
synoptic features.

...Kerr.. 04/23/2023

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1103 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2023/

....Deep South TX...
A long-lived linear MCS continues to progress southeastward across
south TX this morning, with several reports of strong to severe wind
gusts along the leading edge.  Ample low level moisture and CAPE
will allow these storms to persist through the day and eventually
move off the south TX coast by mid/late afternoon - ending the
threat.  Refer to MCD #607 for further details.

$$

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