Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Apr 23 2023 08:56:38

ACUS48 KWNS 230856
SWOD48
SPC AC 230854

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2023

Valid 261200Z - 011200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Models have decent run-to-run consistency, showing a positive-tilt
shortwave trough moving out of NM and into the southern Plains on
Wed/D4, with moderate west/southwest flow aloft from TX to the
central Gulf Coast states. This feature is then expected to continue
across the lower MS Valley on Thu/D5, and into the Southeast by
Fri/D6.

Given the positive tilt to this trough, high pressure likely will
continue southward across the southern Plains and Gulf Coast states,
which will shunt the surface low toward lower latitudes and
eventually over the Gulf of Mexico. In addition, although the air
mass will be moist and unstable (especially TX on Wed/D4), area of
rain and storms may be ongoing throughout much of the period. This
reduces predictability, as any severe risk on Wed/D4 and Thu/D5 will
depend on instability.  While midlevel winds appear favorable at
around 40 kt, winds in the low levels will not be very strong.

Predictability and potential decrease as the trough move across the
Gulf Coast and Southeast, with widespread precipitation and marginal
instability.

...Jewell.. 04/23/2023

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