Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0606
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Apr 23 2023 08:14:06

ACUS11 KWNS 230814
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230813=20
TXZ000-231015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0606
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0313 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2023

Areas affected...portions of central/southern Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 163...

Valid 230813Z - 231015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 163
continues.

SUMMARY...A risk for large hail and strong thunderstorm gusts will
continue across WW 163. A new watch will likely be needed beyond the
10z expiration time for portions of the watch area, and for areas
downstream across southern TX.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of supercells in the DRT vicinity is likely
producing occasional severe hail and strong gusts. These storms are
developing near a west to east/southeast oriented surface boundary
and near/north of richer boundary-layer moisture across south TX.
The expectation is that this convection will continue the next few
hours, and with time, become organized into a forward-propagating
cluster/bowing MCS. This process will likely be driven by a
developing cold pool and southeastward progression of the surface
front. This activity is expected to track southeast along the
low-level moisture gradient toward the Lower TX Coast through the
morning hours.=20

The downstream airmass is characterized by upper 60s to low 70s F
dewpoints, fostering moderate instability. Effective shear
magnitudes greater than 40 kt will allow for convection to remain
organized, posing a continued severe threat. Large-hail potential
will persist, though as convection develops into a bowing MCS,
damaging wind potential should increase across
south-central/southern TX. A new severe thunderstorm watch will
likely be needed for some of the same area in WW 163, along with
areas downstream toward the Lower/Middle TX Coast.

...Leitman.. 04/23/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9VtcM5Ew2NRGndzit_fC5SogVugYq3i4S_he1yBKVG66wBgh-ypKAP5uuv7NIC9W6dpiaR15m=
lMcjMXW93dh1wlCWJU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...BRO...

LAT...LON   29850081 29879986 29739868 29499790 28549633 28299627
            28079641 27449680 26989710 26789743 26769805 27269939
            28230046 29050098 29440120 29680115 29850081=20


=3D =3D =3D
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