Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Apr 23 2023 07:53:09

ACUS03 KWNS 230753
SWODY3
SPC AC 230751

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0251 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2023

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN TEXAS...

....SUMMARY...
Severe storms will be possible mainly over parts of Texas on
Tuesday, with a risk of damaging gusts and hail.

....Synopsis...
An upper low will remain over the Great Lakes on Tuesday as a
shortwave trough moves southeastward to the Four Corners area by
00Z, and into eastern NM by 12Z Wednesday. Ahead of this wave,
west-northwest flow around 500 mb will gradually increase over the
southern Plains, with 40 kt common across TX by Tuesday evening.

At the surface, low pressure will deepen over eastern NM during the
day, with a warm front roughly from the South Plains into northern
TX. A plume of mid 60s F dewpoints is forecast to extend north along
I-35, settling into central TX overnight. Southeast surface winds as
well as persistent 850 mb southerlies around 30 kt will maintain a
moist and unstable air mass, with scattered storms, some severe.

....Much of central and eastern TX, southern OK, western LA...
Increasing moisture combined with areas of heating will lead to
moderate instability Tuesday from central into east-central TX.
Although there will be little to focus storms in this area as the
upper trough remains well to the west, the cap is expected to weaken
sufficiently, and a combination of confluence lines and warm
advection may result in areas of storms by late afternoon. While
flow aloft will strengthen, winds below 500 mb will not be
particularly strong, but overall hodographs will still favor severe
storms capable of hail and wind. Forecast soundings show rather weak
winds around the 700 mb level, but modest SRH may support transient
supercells, and more likely, cluster of storms. Some of this
activity could persist into LA, aided by the moist air mass.

To the north, elevated instability will develop into OK, and
marginal hail cannot be ruled out despite weaker effective shear
north of the stronger midlevel winds.

...Jewell.. 04/23/2023

$$

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