Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0604
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Apr 23 2023 02:17:36

ACUS11 KWNS 230217
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230216=20
TXZ000-230345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0604
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0916 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2023

Areas affected...South-Central Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 230216Z - 230345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be issued south of
ww162.

DISCUSSION...Frontal convection continues across southern portions
of ww162. This activity is expected to continue propagating
south-southeast along the eastern reservoir of higher instability.
00z sounding from DRT exhibited MLCAPE around 2500 J/kg with some
capping evident near 850mb. While low-level inflow is not
particularly impressive at this time, latest guidance suggests 850mb
flow should increase a bit into this activity over the next few
hours. Strong southward frontal surge, and north of west mid-level
flow, favor convection spreading across south-central TX.

...Darrow/Goss.. 04/23/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-jyOtKZZTPpWHQhkCG472rHIwmbSEcP3-cXmbUS-B6S15hY8q-mWUlZSKh52TQVPBThOqL1SY=
ZRVgfQ2Z6RrmmyvvQY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...MAF...

LAT...LON   30250157 29999808 28389834 28280023 29710187 30250157=20


=3D =3D =3D
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