Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Apr 23 2023 01:02:32

ACUS01 KWNS 230102
SWODY1
SPC AC 230100

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2023

Valid 230100Z - 231200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms remain possible tonight across parts of central
and south Texas.

....Parts of central/south TX...
Storms ongoing across the TX Hill Country and the Edwards Plateau
have shown a tendency to be undercut by a southward-moving cold
front, but have occasionally produced marginally severe hail over
the last 1-2 hours. There remains some possibility that a stronger
supercell or two will evolve from ongoing convection, posing a
threat of large hail and locally severe gusts.

Later tonight, guidance suggests that a southeasterly low-level jet
may modestly increase into southern portions of the Edwards Plateau
region. This may support renewed development of elevated supercells,
and eventual upscale growth prior to 12Z Sunday morning. The Slight
Risk has been expanded somewhat southward to account for this
scenario, though uncertainty remains relatively high regarding the
evolution of overnight convection.

....Coastal NC...
A few strong storms are ongoing near the NC coast this evening.
Increasingly limited buoyancy should limit the remaining severe
threat, but isolated damaging gusts cannot be ruled out until storms
move offshore.

....Northeast...
A band of convection is ongoing this evening from eastern NY into
NJ. The northern portion of this line should diminish with time as
instability becomes increasingly minimal. A modest amount of MUCAPE
remains farther south into southern New England (as noted in the 00Z
OKX sounding), and isolated strong gusts and/or small hail may occur
with ongoing convection tonight, but the severe threat is expected
to generally remain low for the rest of the forecast period.

...Dean.. 04/23/2023

$$

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