Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0602
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Apr 22 2023 22:22:33

ACUS11 KWNS 222222
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222221=20
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-222315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0602
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0521 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2023

Areas affected...Northeast Pennsylvania and southeast New York

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 222221Z - 222315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A locally higher severe weather threat appears likely
across southeast New York and northeast Pennsylvania over the next 1
to 2 hours.

DISCUSSION...The line of storms has a portion of more favorable
orientation across northeast Pennsylvania which may have a greater
severe weather threat over the next 1 to 2 hours. In addition, a few
supercells have developed ahead of this line on the New
York/Pennsylvania border. These supercells appear to be right along
a warm frontal boundary and therefore, may pose an increased tornado
threat given the increased low-level SRH along the warm front. This
threat will likely be short-lived (1 to 2 hours) given the narrow
region of favorable conditions and an expected waning threat after
sunset. Due to the short-lived nature of the threat, no watch is
anticipated.

...Bentley/Goss.. 04/22/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7U5tGJb8vQKQedOutPQ_c3lSbLIt7AdaTXtLEM4txkIgxgBUwt4wqgjj9g8ZjjJYOGIsZwxAz=
bJFg05Pdtb2tVsHQ5s$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...

LAT...LON   41097517 41437555 41787566 42317569 42667561 42667474
            42347421 41657413 41257422 41067448 41097517=20


=3D =3D =3D
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