Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0599
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Apr 22 2023 21:39:02

ACUS11 KWNS 222138
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222138=20
NCZ000-SCZ000-222315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0599
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0438 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2023

Areas affected...Southeast North Carolina and northeast South
Carolina

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 161...

Valid 222138Z - 222315Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 161
continues.

SUMMARY...The greatest severe weather threat will be across southern
portions of watch 161 over the next 2 hours.

DISCUSSION...Some of the strongest storms in watch 161 have
developed in southern North Carolina and northern South Carolina.
These storms are a hybrid of some linear segments and embedded
supercell structures as well as some semi-discrete supercells. The
LTX VWP shows 5km flow has increased to over 50 knots in the last
hour, yielding 40-45 knots of effective shear across the region.
These storms will continue to move east to an increasingly unstable
airmass with mid to upper 60s dewpoints and temperatures in the low
70s. Therefore, expect these storms to maintain severe intensity all
the way to the coast. Damaging wind remains the primary hazard with
some chance for large hail, and potentially a brief tornado. While
low-level shear is not that strong (100-125 m2/s2 per LTX VWP), it
is sufficient for a non-zero tornado threat, and given the supercell
storm mode, this also supports the chance for a tornado or two.

...Bentley.. 04/22/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7yNTKZtzRahPvTO8-FY2prSZGJXlvd91r4w2cAKQb9o68ZgEYiSzd4968DNm_496Ms7ceyH3s=
u3AzzwY3g3BOFh_92o$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...

LAT...LON   34367948 35007896 35177765 34967686 34857662 34677651
            34567700 34047775 33767798 33667869 33087921 32877959
            32947996 33618004 34367948=20


=3D =3D =3D
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