Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0598
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Apr 22 2023 20:54:32

ACUS11 KWNS 222054
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222054=20
SCZ000-FLZ000-GAZ000-222300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0598
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2023

Areas affected...North Florida to the Georgia and South Carolina
Coast

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 222054Z - 222300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are gradually
developing along an approaching cold front and regional sea-breeze
boundaries. A few strong to severe storms are possible and may pose
a sporadic hail/damaging wind threat. Watch issuance is not
anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Over the past 1-2 hours, a few isolated cells have
developed along, and moved off of, a migratory cold front
approaching north FL and the GA/SC coast. The lift associated with
the front is well-timed with peak diurnal heating with MLCAPE values
up to 1500 J/kg noted in recent RAP mesoanalysis and latest hi-res
forecast soundings. While hodographs are somewhat poorly structured
per recent VWP observations, there appears to be sufficient
deep-layer shear for storm organization. Effective shear vectors
largely oriented along the frontal boundary along the GA/SC coast
will favor a tendency for storm interactions/upscale growth, which
may limit the overall propensity for long-lived severe convection.
However, shear vectors off the boundary across north FL may support
more long-lived convection that should pose a more robust, albeit
isolated, large hail and damaging wind threat. Additional convection
developing along sea-breeze boundaries across north FL will likely
see similar intensification. Relatively modest ascent along the cold
front will likely favor more isolated convection, limiting the
overall coverage of the threat.

...Moore/Goss.. 04/22/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!98-xZtYArApxrcVPNfOM4ioKzDnbCL-GkrpYFh6WV2ii3M8WOwmuIddNA1aeEWa85ZxrNqCVX=
B07mLG9A7UwZsenYL8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON   29818361 30608249 31058206 31968149 32428114 32678083
            32628057 32388030 32148049 31778088 31108117 30548116
            29988114 29548096 29138074 28838061 28418045 28118050
            27988091 28128139 28738254 29138319 29498355 29668363
            29818361=20


=3D =3D =3D
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