Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0596
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Apr 22 2023 18:59:03

ACUS11 KWNS 221858
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221858=20
TXZ000-222100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0596
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2023

Areas affected...the Texas Edwards Plateau vicinity

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 221858Z - 222100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The initiation of scattered thunderstorms, including one
or two developing supercells, appears possible by 3-5 PM CDT.  These
storms will pose a risk for large hail, locally strong surface
gusts, and at least some potential for a tornado.

DISCUSSION...Beneath modestly steep mid-level lapse rates,
lower-level lapse rates are becoming very steep in response to
insolation and deepening boundary-layer mixing.  This is focused
either side of a sharpening dryline wrapping into a weak surface low
to the northwest of San Angelo.  East of the dryline, boundary-layer
moisture remains characterized by mid/upper 50s surface dew points,
but it appears that this is sufficient to support mixed-layer CAPE
in excess of 1000 J/kg.

Attempts at deepening boundary-layer based convective development
are ongoing near the surface low center, as well as within, at least
initially, a bit more elevated warm advection regime
east-southeastward into areas northeast of San Angelo.  As
inhibition for boundary-layer parcels erodes further with additional
heating and large-scale ascent, it appears that thunderstorms may
initiate as early as 20-22Z, before increasing and intensifying
through the remainder of the afternoon.

Although low-level wind fields are generally modest to weak, strong
deep-layer shear beneath at least broadly cyclonic, 50+ kt flow
around 500 mb is sufficient for organized severe convection.  The
evolution of one or two sustained supercells is possible, which
probably will be accompanied by a risk for large hail, locally
strong surface gusts, and at least some risk for producing a
tornado, while slowly propagating southeastward.

...Kerr/Hart.. 04/22/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4ImmXH7wkewVWCXqbNLDtWwFshsGGKa87v-rD-z2o_qs-IyL36Qqt3ksVqRhmcyJVz--dW41q=
nIGbrpoIhxPYaSXj0M$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...

LAT...LON   31920077 31959974 31819919 31329829 30899911 31079988
            30910090 31430064 31920077=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.