Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0595
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Apr 22 2023 18:48:01

ACUS11 KWNS 221847
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221847=20
NJZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-222045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0595
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2023

Areas affected...Eastern Pennsylvania into the southern New England
region

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 221847Z - 222045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...An organized line of thunderstorms with a history of
sporadic wind damage will continue into eastern Pennsylvania and the
southern New England region. A downstream watch is probable.

DISCUSSION...Radar trends over the past hour show an organized band
of convection moving across the DelMarVa region. This band has a
history of sporadic tree damage, and will continue moving into an
area featuring around 250-500 J/kg MLCAPE. While this instability is
somewhat meager, strong deep-layer shear and 30-35 knots of 0-3 km
bulk shear orthogonal to some sections of the line will likely
compensate for the limited buoyancy and maintain at least a
semi-organized line downstream. Consequently, a severe thunderstorm
watch may be needed in the short term to address this threat.

...Moore/Hart.. 04/22/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8jyxh3pkQjAWCPEDWdHXNWyUQSCoweO6cucVHsxcAL_WYZTi5qPQVDdiX8NfHd-sixyB2bUrB=
f82t1yMfvli9Mq37O0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON   41167744 41657676 41797508 41507430 41067411 40037431
            39027469 38727569 38577651 38727715 39707713 40167726
            40367740 41167744=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.