Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Apr 22 2023 17:28:32

ACUS02 KWNS 221728
SWODY2
SPC AC 221727

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2023

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTH TEXAS...

....SUMMARY...
Potentially scattered thunderstorms may produce large hail and
damaging gusts Sunday over parts of South Texas.

....Synopsis...
With relatively zonal flow aloft across the southern U.S., modestly
strong westerlies will remain across the southern Plains on Sunday.
At the surface, west-east cold front will be situated from the
Edwards Plateau into the Hill Country and East Texas. This boundary
is expected to shift southward during the day. The potential for
severe weather will focus along and south of this boundary.

....South Texas...
There is some uncertainty with regard to how convection will evolve
on Sunday, with some aspects tied to what occurs Saturday night.
Some guidance suggests a weak perturbation may initiate convection
Saturday night within the Edwards Plateau vicinity and propagate it
along and south of the front. While not in a diurnally favorable
time frame, some potential for wind gusts would exist early Sunday
should convection be sustained. Given the weak forcing, however, a
more probable scenario would be for convection to initiate along the
southward moving front and/or the Gulf breeze front. Upper 60s F
dewpoints will support around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Effective shear of
35-40 kts will support some storm organization as well. Initial
storms would be capable large hail and damaging winds. Depending on
storm coverage and cold pool organization, a zone of greater wind
damage potential could develop should a small MCS develop.

...Wendt.. 04/22/2023

$$

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