Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0593
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Apr 22 2023 16:47:32

ACUS11 KWNS 221647
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221646=20
NCZ000-SCZ000-221845-

Mesoscale Discussion 0593
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1146 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2023

Areas affected...Southeast NC...Eastern SC

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 221646Z - 221845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon
across southern NC and eastern SC. Some of these storms could be
capable of producing damaging gusts. Observational trends will be
monitored for potential watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Initial convective line that extends from about 25
miles south of FAY in southeast SC to the NC coast about 40 miles
east-northeast of CHS is expected to continue northeastward over the
next few hours. Limited land area exists ahead of this line, but the
northeastward motion of the line may keep it over coastal NC.
Buoyancy has remain modest ahead of this line thus far, with the
cooler trajectories off the water contributing to lower
temperatures. Even so, some additional heating is possible, with an
attendant boost in buoyancy anticipated as well. This could lead to
some intensification and the potential for a few damaging gusts.

Clearing in the wake of this line has allowed for additional
isolation ahead of the cold front, with temperatures now in the mid
to upper 70s. Dewpoints are in the low to mid 60s. Lapse rates are
weak, but these warm and moist conditions still support moderate
buoyancy, with mesoanalysis estimating MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg
across eastern SC. This region will be on the southern edge of the
stronger flow aloft, but enough shear is still expected to support
organized storms.=20

Expectation is for another round of thunderstorms to develop along
and ahead of the cold front this afternoon. Given the environment
conditions, some of these storms could be severe. Observational
trends will be monitored closely over the next few hours for
potential watch issuance.

...Mosier/Hart.. 04/22/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_5NbhhOmFxtM7erXV6znkX8G1O6EK15nkD73vSIUUArNJGZ-tAWjDB_30BACmhZLta-16kLSx=
rKb7Xw68uWr8ElPSK0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...

LAT...LON   32838081 34647989 34817736 33927777 33127924 32518027
            32838081=20


=3D =3D =3D
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