Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Apr 22 2023 16:15:29 ACUS01 KWNS 221615 SWODY1 SPC AC 221614 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2023 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION INTO THE CAROLINAS...AS WELL AS PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS.... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic region, and this afternoon and evening over portions of south Texas. ....Mid-Atlantic Region... The current water vapor loop shows a strong upper trough becoming negatively tilted over the Ohio Valley, with a 70-80 knot mid-level jet nosing into VA. A persistent line of thunderstorms is tracking eastward into central VA/NC, and is expected to intensify soon. Thermodynamics ahead of the storms are rather weak, with limited lapse rates and MLCAPE generally below 500 J/kg. However, given the strength of the winds aloft and approaching upper forcing, the potential for damaging wind gusts along the line is expected to increase. These storms will track across eastern MD/DE before moving offshore by late afternoon. ....Carolinas... The primary cold front extends across western SC. Strong heating is occurring ahead of the front over SC and parts of southern NC, where afternoon MLCAPE will rise to 1000-1500 J/kg. Present indications are that storms will intensify in this area by mid-afternoon, with a combination of multicell and supercell structures possible. Winds aloft are slightly weaker here than farther north, but still sufficient for a risk of hail and gusty/damaging winds in the stronger storms through the early evening. ....Hill Country of Texas... Latest surface analysis shows a weak low to the northwest of San Angelo, with a dryline extending southward to the Mexican border. Strong heating through the day will lead to a weak cap and 2000+ J/kg of MLCAPE by mid/late afternoon. Isolated supercell storms are expected to form near the low and track slowly southeastward into the warm sector. Forecast soundings show moderately steep mid level lapse rates and favorable deep layer shear for the risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts. A tornado or two are possible, but limited low-level shear is expected to lessen that threat. ...Hart/Kerr.. 04/22/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .