Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0592
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Apr 22 2023 13:35:32

ACUS11 KWNS 221335
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221334=20
MDZ000-NCZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-221530-

Mesoscale Discussion 0592
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0834 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2023

Areas affected...Central/Eastern NC...Central/Eastern VA...Central
MD...Far Eastern WV Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 221334Z - 221530Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Ongoing line of thunderstorms is expected to persist, with
a continued threat for damaging gusts. Trends are being monitored
for possible watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery shows a line showers and
thunderstorms extending for western VA southward into eastern SC.
Trends within recent radar and lightning data reveal this line has
intensified faster than initially anticipated. Motion of this line
is estimated at 30-35 kt, which will bring it into central NC around
within the hour, and into central VA around 15Z. Current
observations reveal temperature in the low to mid 60s and dewpoints
in the mid to upper 50s ahead of the line. Mesoanalysis estimates
that most of the region ahead of the line remains stable, with
limited buoyancy noted across south-central NC. However, moisture
advection is expected to persist, likely resulting in a narrow
corridor of reduced inhibition and modest buoyancy just ahead of the
line. Given this destabilization and continued ascent along the
convective line itself, the expectation is for the line to continue,
with some strengthening possible. Consequently, damaging gusts are
possible within this line as it moves eastward over the next few
hours, and trends are being monitored for possible watch issuance.

...Mosier/Hart.. 04/22/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4KdjLNKQdBCVeON_r1OuwtXak3OkdRGVzlnTcVGnE8GeQbwK0OPKVTflcVQ0buYwXodk7ZLe8=
H7EobfFNmECXLzmVSA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK...

LAT...LON   38587897 39387862 39677781 39287629 37067630 35247689
            35027883 36767931 38587897=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.