Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Apr 22 2023 01:02:25

ACUS01 KWNS 220102
SWODY1
SPC AC 220100

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2023

Valid 220100Z - 221200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN LA
INTO SOUTHERN MS AND EXTREME WEST-CENTRAL AL...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible into late evening from
parts of Louisiana into southern Mississippi. Hail and locally
strong/damaging gusts are the primary threats.

....Lower MS Valley into parts of the Southeast...
Convection ongoing from LA into southern/central MS and northwest AL
has occasionally shown modest organization this evening, but storm
intensity has limited by weak instability (MLCAPE 500-1000 J/kg),
despite the presence of favorable deep-layer shear. A few strong
storms may persist into the late evening along a
southeastward-moving cold front, and isolated marginal hail and/or a
strong/damaging gust cannot ruled out into late evening. However,
increasingly limited instability should generally limit the overall
severe potential.

....NC/SC Piedmont region...
Convection currently ongoing across parts of the lower MS Valley
into the TN Valley will spread into parts of the southern
Appalachians, OH Valley, and lower Great Lakes overnight, as a
notable shortwave moves through the base of a deep upper trough and
a surface wave moves northeastward along an advancing cold front. A
few stronger storms cannot be ruled out, but very limited buoyancy
should generally limit the severe threat.

Toward the end of the forecast period, convection will spread into
the NC/SC Piedmont region, where somewhat more favorable low-level
moisture and instability will be in place. Some threat for an
isolated strong/damaging gust and/or marginal hail cannot be ruled
out prior to 12Z, but at this time the primary severe threat is
expected to begin later tomorrow morning, during the D2/Saturday
forecast period.

...Dean.. 04/22/2023

$$

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