Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0590
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Apr 21 2023 19:12:54

ACUS11 KWNS 211912
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211912=20
TXZ000-212115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0590
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0212 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2023

Areas affected...South TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 211912Z - 212115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms capable of very large hail and
damaging gusts are possible across south TX this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Surface observations show temperatures have climbed in
the upper 80s/low 90s ahead of a diffuse cold front pushing into the
region. These surface temperatures, combined with dewpoints in the
upper 60s/low 70s and steep mid-level lapse rates, support strong
buoyancy. Recent 18Z BRO sounding sampled over 2800 J/kg of MLCAPE.
This sounding also showed relatively deep boundary-layer moisture,
with a 100-mb mean mixing ratio of 16.6 g/kg. However, temperatures
at the base of the EML (around 800 mb) are near 18 deg C, so even
with these relatively warm and moist conditions some convective
inhibition remains.

Attempts at deep convective have failed thus far, likely a result of
dry-air entrainment. Nevertheless, additional heating and continued
attempts at initiation should result in a storm or two. Very large
hail (i.e. greater than 2" in diameter) is possible with any
sustained updrafts, with some strong outflow likely as well. Overall
storm coverage is currently expected to be isolated.

...Mosier/Hart.. 04/21/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-UJjWd476P9EZ5WVG66tWgY8Dj5z8PT_vUkDv2UbuZF66c5ssHq7_MbKAW7qf3-3QHV7vYdHC=
scSc7sDO_RnZYUSwhc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO...

LAT...LON   26439911 27129949 27589949 27879938 28169883 28129811
            27829770 27379746 26919745 25999717 25939761 26159844
            26439911=20


=3D =3D =3D
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