Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0588
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Apr 21 2023 18:35:54

ACUS11 KWNS 211835
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211835=20
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-212030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0588
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0135 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2023

Areas affected...Northern LA...Western/Northern MS...Far Southeast
AR

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 211835Z - 212030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase this
afternoon across northern LA into western and northern MS. Isolated
hail and/or damaging gusts are possible.

DISCUSSION...Airmass across northern LA and western MS continues to
gradually destabilize ahead of the approaching cold front. Recent
surface observations show temperatures now in the mid 70s across
northern LA and low 70s across western MS. Dewpoints in those same
areas are generally in the mid 60s. Additional heating combined with
continued low-level moisture advection is anticipated, eroding what
little convective inhibition is left while also improving the
overall buoyancy. As a result, thunderstorm coverage is expected to
increase along and ahead of the front over the next few hours.

Low-level flow should remain rather weak across the region, keeping
the low-level shear weak and limiting the tornado threat. In
contrast, mid-level flow is expected to gradually strengthen. This
strengthening mid-level flow combined with steep mid-level lapse
could result in a few more organized updrafts capable of hail and/or
damaging gusts. A cell-in-line mode appears likely throughout much
of the region. The only exception is across northern MS where
additional forcing attendant to the surface low could contribute to
a more linear/bowing line segment storm mode.

...Mosier/Hart.. 04/21/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-XyX0yVxcncLgvDK7DKcvXhvFZ-YM8LBIA7J1VwQLbgyrwImsBo9XEBGdebev1Mox0S33y_6C=
9kmcmeyNM50oVC74Tk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...SHV...

LAT...LON   32149356 32649208 33669071 34039034 34448971 34368898
            33708908 32179068 31429309 32149356=20


=3D =3D =3D
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