Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Apr 21 2023 08:12:48

FOUS30 KWBC 210812
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
411 AM EDT Fri Apr 21 2023

Day 1
Valid 12Z Fri Apr 21 2023 - 12Z Sat Apr 22 2023

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS...

A strong front and attendant squall line are tracking across
coastal TX, LA and up the MS and OH rivers into IL and IN. With
time, the line is becoming more progressive, so it's increased
speed of movement is consequently resulting in diminishing chances
of flash flooding associated therewith. Much of the 00Z CAMS
guidance shows that while new areas of storms are likely to
develop during the day behind the main line moving across the area
as of the time of this writing, in addition to minimal overlap,
the newly developed storms are not expected to be as strong or as
widespread as the current line. Thus, any flash flooding will be
limited to those isolated instances where the strongest storms in
the second line overlap with where the heaviest rain fell with the
first line. Otherwise, FFGs throughout the Marginal Risk area are
high, with soil moisture at or below normal, with more below
normal soil moisture further north into northern KY and OH, per
NASA Sport imagery. Regardless, the second round of storms is most
likely over MS, and is expected to be moving at similar fast
speeds as the first line, limiting the threat there as well.

Considering all of those above factors, and in coordination with
MEG/Memphis, TN and LIX/New Orleans, LA forecast offices, the
inherited Slight Risk area was downgraded to a Marginal Risk with
this update.=20

Wegman


Day 2

The Day 2 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!92G_gaVJ1JHgVYqKRiPQvMZgo1DVMNc9SXN7Oi6OKP7k=
MyGSjsEXMEQHTXtr4wsLovxEbGDd3AI3vWwcOozfqtwsHoY$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!92G_gaVJ1JHgVYqKRiPQvMZgo1DVMNc9SXN7Oi6OKP7k=
MyGSjsEXMEQHTXtr4wsLovxEbGDd3AI3vWwcOozfIzJ_aQ8$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!92G_gaVJ1JHgVYqKRiPQvMZgo1DVMNc9SXN7Oi6OKP7k=
MyGSjsEXMEQHTXtr4wsLovxEbGDd3AI3vWwcOozfsQibJkI$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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