Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Apr 21 2023 01:08:15

ACUS01 KWNS 210108
SWODY1
SPC AC 210106

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0806 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2023

Valid 210100Z - 211200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/EAST
TX INTO AR AND WESTERN LA...

....SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible tonight, mainly
across parts of central and east Texas into Arkansas and western
Louisiana.  Damaging winds and large hail will remain the primary
hazards, but a couple tornadoes are also possible.

....TX into the mid MS Valley...
Extensive convection is ongoing this evening from central TX
northeastward toward parts of the Great Lakes region, along/ahead of
a cold front. Storms from northern AR into IL/IN and lower MI are
moving into a less unstable environment, and a gradual weakening
trend is expected to continue with the onset of nocturnal
cooling/stabilization.

Stronger instability (MLCAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg) remains in place
from south-central TX into the ArkLaTex. Effective shear of 30-40 kt
will remain modestly favorable for organized convection for much of
the evening. The stronger semi-discrete cells in this region will
remain capable of producing large hail, locally damaging gusts, and
possibly a tornado or two. Meanwhile, an ongoing bowing segment
across central TX may continue propagating southeastward toward the
upper TX coast, maintaining a threat of locally damaging gusts.

With the primary cold front still west of the majority of ongoing
convection, additional development will be possible later this
evening into the overnight hours. Depending on the evolution of
convection this evening, additional strong thunderstorm clusters
cannot be ruled out overnight, with a continued threat of locally
damaging gusts and isolated hail.

...Dean.. 04/21/2023

$$

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