Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0584
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Apr 20 2023 22:37:16

ACUS11 KWNS 202237
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202236=20
INZ000-ILZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-210000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0584
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0536 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2023

Areas affected...Southern Illinois...and southeast Missouri

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 151...

Valid 202236Z - 210000Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 151
continues.

SUMMARY...A marginal severe storm threat will continue for a few
more hours across southern Illinois and southeast Missouri.

DISCUSSION...Numerous competing storms have developed within severe
thunderstorm watch 151. Storms are struggling to organize in this
region, likely due to the relative minimum in instability (~500-750
J/kg MLCAPE). In addition, the widespread nature of the ongoing
convection is leading to destructive interference which will further
stabilize the airmass and reduce the severe weather threat. In
addition, the line of storm near St. Louis is in a slightly better
airmass, but the LSX WSR-88D shows the outflow boundary has surged
well east of these storms which should reduce the overall severe
threat. Therefore, other than a few pockets of slightly better
instability, where the environment has not been worked over, the
severe weather threat should be more marginal for the remainder of
the evening. Due to these factors, a downstream watch is not
expected east of watch 151.

...Bentley/Goss.. 04/20/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-YYCyHmhR8m70GImJ7ORwCteNGK1GoOIKM5KBblHQTWnRX4N-E3SQ6pCWv3OiJZhHr_RBPQGW=
qq5QXopLYy4c326ask$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON   40139021 40368875 39888791 39058771 37958806 37058914
            36538988 36529049 36559124 36509225 36579286 36929293
            40139021=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.