Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0578
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Apr 20 2023 20:11:16

ACUS11 KWNS 202011
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202010=20
ILZ000-MOZ000-202145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0578
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0310 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2023

Areas affected...Southern/Eastern MO...West-Central IL

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 151...

Valid 202010Z - 202145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 151
continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and
damaging gusts continues across southern/eastern MO and west-central
IL.

DISCUSSION...Strong to severe thunderstorms continue along the cold
front stretched from near BRL into far west-central IL southwestward
through central and southern MO. Storms have quickly trended towards
a linear/bowing line segment mode as they become more outflow
dominant. This overall storm evolution is expected to continue, with
the highest threat for large hail likely early in the storm
lifecycle, trending towards more of a damaging wind threat
thereafter. Most favorable corridor for continued severe currently
appears to be east-central MO into west-central IL.=20

Recent mesoanalysis estimates the downstream air mass is only
modestly buoyant, and with some convective inhibition likely
remaining. This is verified by recent visible satellite imagery,
which shows billows across southeast MO and western portions of
southern IL.

...Mosier.. 04/20/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!59Dgitb9KcuOlh6SBtAXjWglPQ3056vuBjhKhFtG1KoMfuur3RW-8pX9_PfiBUTQjUhMt1hZ7=
g69fZfofPvSCv-NU8Q$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON   36559334 37589278 38689217 40009114 40249033 39998857
            38358923 36749108 36559334=20


=3D =3D =3D
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