Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0576
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Apr 20 2023 18:39:15

ACUS11 KWNS 201839
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201838=20
TXZ000-201945-

Mesoscale Discussion 0576
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0138 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2023

Areas affected...Portions of eastern and central Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 201838Z - 201945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Large hail and damaging winds will be possible with
thunderstorm development through the afternoon and evening. A watch
will be needed in the next 1-2 hours.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are developing along and ahead of an
east-southeastward advancing cold front located across central and
eastern Texas. Storms will gradually move into an area of favorable
conditions for intensification, given an axis of MLCAPE around
2000-3000 J/kg and steep mid-level lapse rates around 7.5 C/km. Deep
layer shear is marginal but is expected to support a few discrete
supercells along and ahead of the cold front. These initial discrete
cells will be capable of very large hail (some in excess of 2
inches). Given that shear vectors are largely parallel to the front,
the tendency through time will be for cells to begin to cluster and
grow upscale through time. This will lead to an increase in the
damaging wind threat through the late afternoon/evening. A watch
will be needed in the next 1-2 hours.

...Thornton/Grams.. 04/20/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8D2KSIPxmt_oWmsoVm39JduKfF9KKwL6-TZIuGq4iltGYBJricvRu6-9WrSS3dZXU-nvlfZvK=
A1Qihczo7k1gyr74wg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   32279801 32869706 32909647 32979601 32999555 32709496
            32029486 29719626 29049644 28639695 28399761 28399833
            28399868 29969978 30580019 31090029 31300022 31529933
            31759886 32279801=20


=3D =3D =3D
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