Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0575
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Apr 20 2023 17:48:12

ACUS11 KWNS 201748
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201747=20
ARZ000-MOZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-201845-

Mesoscale Discussion 0575
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2023

Areas affected...Portions of southeastern Oklahoma...northeastern
Texas...and western/central Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 201747Z - 201845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Coverage of thunderstorms expected to increase through the
afternoon. Hail and damaging winds possible. A watch will likely be
needed in the next 1-2 hours.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development is expected to increase
through the afternoon and evening. Thick mid-level cloud cover has
led to a slower increase in instability across much of Arkansas.
Further south across eastern Texas/Oklahoma, breaks in the cloud
cover, along with modest moisture return, have allowed better
destabilization with recent cell development noted on radar. MLCAPE
around 1000-2500 J/kg is observed in surface objective analysis and
the 16Z RAOB from FWD. Deepening moisture and weakening of
inhibition is also noted in within the RAOB from FWD. Given this
weakening inhibition, thunderstorm activity will begin to increase
along and ahead of the cold front across eastern Oklahoma into
Arkansas and further south near the front in east Texas. Initial
cells may pose a risk of severe hail, with deep layer shear around
30-40 kts (highest along and near the front). As the front
approaches, storm mode will become more linear with upscale growth.
As this occurs, risk of damaging wind will increase. A watch will
likely be needed within the next 1-2 hours.

...Thornton/Grams.. 04/20/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_4kV-F-hRJasmTWVaghT7zeGlYA5WqPs-FmS9NJRymC_xyx1DjAV71XwpL27grmeGykiuioNi=
b5RUlny5KAycBBWMkk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   33549355 33509368 33449390 32659680 32619752 32869753
            33479693 34359620 35119539 35829480 36549390 36639324
            36519250 36199164 35859171 34919207 33659341 33549355=20


=3D =3D =3D
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