Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0571
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Apr 20 2023 08:36:10

ACUS11 KWNS 200836
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200835=20
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-201030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0571
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0335 AM CDT Thu Apr 20 2023

Areas affected...Portions of northeastern KS...northwestern MO...and
far southeastern NE

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 149...150...

Valid 200835Z - 201030Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 149, 150
continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated large hail and severe wind threat continues
with thunderstorms spreading east-northeastward early this morning.

DISCUSSION...Over the past couple of hours, thunderstorms have
consolidated into a small cluster along the cold front in
northeastern KS. Even with some boundary layer inhibition, this
convection has the potential to remain near-surface-based, with mid
50s surface dewpoints present ahead of the ongoing activity. A
recent measured wind gust to 61 mph at KMHK (Manhattan KS) suggests
that occasional severe/damaging winds will remain possible with this
cluster in the short term as it continues east-northeastward.

A separate, broken band of thunderstorms is also ongoing to the east
across far northeastern KS, including one supercell approaching the
west side of the Kansas City metro. This convection is being aided
by a 60-70+ kt southerly low-level jet. Due to the continued
presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear,
any supercell that can remain sustained and at least semi-discrete
ahead of the cold-front related cluster will pose an isolated threat
for large hail. The threat for both hail and damaging winds may
spread into more of northwestern MO over the next couple of hours,
even though instability decreases with eastern extent across this
area.

...Gleason.. 04/20/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6COW1SkBrJ_CfiMTPHEvKCrt6Sc9Df23JiVq74YD_r72xxgetw3MUWoDqtjjKcG7ALVjNVJIO=
SmaYJv38BigxPpC5sk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   39249673 39779627 40209612 40399563 40479418 39919359
            38779422 38349515 38679719 39249673=20


=3D =3D =3D
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