Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Apr 20 2023 08:22:01

FOUS30 KWBC 200821
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
420 AM EDT Thu Apr 20 2023

Day 1
Valid 12Z Thu Apr 20 2023 - 12Z Fri Apr 21 2023

......THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
EAST TEXAS TO THE MID-SOUTH...

Deep-layer Gulf moisture streams up across Texas until a cold
frontal passage early Friday. PW values of 1.75 inches (1.5 to 2
sigma) will spread over central/eastern Texas through Arkansas and
the Mid-South by Thursday afternoon ahead of the frontal boundary
as it approaches. As the front approaches, the southwesterly flow
will then align nearly parallel which will increase the potential
for repeating and backbuilding storms. The latest global guidance
depicts 1 to 4 inches spanning eastern Texas/Gulf Coast to
mid-Mississippi Valley with some of the hi-res suggesting embedded
maximums of 5 to 7 inches possible from eastern Texas to the
central Arkansas. There is a growing signal for several inches to
fall over far southeast Texas/southwest Louisiana therefore the
Slight Risk area was expanded to the Gulf Coast to account for
this trend. Further north, amounts around 1 inch or less is
expected north of the mid-Mississippi Valley; though FFG will
remain lower there due to recent rains (and snowmelt in WI), there
will be an elevated threat for flooding concerns.


Campbell


Day 2

The Day 2 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_zZ6jgcgmTNF80oFH5ePc3eQjFThzpwtQrOn5toXF1lz=
AS_SCfZPPUTcGBam6dGHeTMrussf9kkrF3G68CSWbnqeMTU$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_zZ6jgcgmTNF80oFH5ePc3eQjFThzpwtQrOn5toXF1lz=
AS_SCfZPPUTcGBam6dGHeTMrussf9kkrF3G68CSWvs2ceiw$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_zZ6jgcgmTNF80oFH5ePc3eQjFThzpwtQrOn5toXF1lz=
AS_SCfZPPUTcGBam6dGHeTMrussf9kkrF3G68CSWdPr0piw$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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