Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0570
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Apr 20 2023 06:29:39

ACUS11 KWNS 200629
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200628=20
MOZ000-KSZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-200830-

Mesoscale Discussion 0570
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0128 AM CDT Thu Apr 20 2023

Areas affected...Portions of central into northeastern
KS...southeastern NE...far northwestern MO...and extreme
southwestern IA

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 149...150...

Valid 200628Z - 200830Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 149, 150
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for large hail and damaging winds should
continue for at least a couple more hours this morning.

DISCUSSION...Strong low-level convergence associated with the
intersection of a northward-retreating dryline and a
southward-moving cold front has contributed to additional robust
thunderstorm development from north-central/northeastern KS into
southeastern NE. This activity is also being aided by forcing
attendant to a very strong (60-70+ kt) southerly low-level jet.
Although some convective overturning has occurred across these
areas, sufficiently steep mid-level lapse rates and 40-50+ kt of
deep-layer shear associated with an ejecting upper trough will still
support a mix of supercell and linear structures capable of
producing both large hail and damaging winds for at least the next
couple of hours. Some back-building of convection should occur along
the cold front into central KS. The strong to severe thunderstorms
in northeastern KS and southeastern NE will have a tendency to
become elevated to the north of the front, but they should still
pose a large hail threat and some risk for damaging/severe wind
gusts capable of breaching the near-surface stable layer.

...Gleason.. 04/20/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!63h1odVkIk-kqqBaLtKpNrpQos6C62j3U53CuS-j-sZW9qIhCJWef0GQuAlG7ion77BATgcCj=
FP6wU8Wot5wVGi3GfM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

LAT...LON   39409842 40049849 40799743 40949607 40819520 40499493
            39779506 38369596 38309742 38239913 39409842=20


=3D =3D =3D
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