Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Apr 20 2023 05:52:29 AWUS01 KWNH 200552 FFGMPD MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-201015- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0198 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 151 AM EDT Thu Apr 20 2023 Areas affected...northeastern KS into northwestern MO, southeastern NE, western IA Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 200550Z - 201015Z Summary...Localized to scattered areas of flash flooding will be possible across portions of northeastern KS, northwestern MO, southwestern NE and western IA through 10Z. Training of heavy rain should produce rates of 1-2 in/hr with localized totals of 2-4 inches possible. Discussion...Over the past 30-45 minutes (ending 0530Z), regional radar imagery showed a rapidly developing cluster of thunderstorms over north-central KS, north of Hayes, developing along a sharp cold front draped southwestward from central NE into southwestern KS. Additional development just northwest of Salina was noted along an existing and slower moving frontal boundary, connected to a surface low in western IA. 05Z SPC mesoanalysis data showed MUCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg and precipitable water values of approximately 1 to 1.2 inches were in place from eastern KS into the southern half of IA. Convection was developing in response to lift ahead of an approaching, negatively tilted, upper level trough axis located over the central High Plains as seen on water vapor imagery. As forcing ahead of the approaching upper trough nears and low level moisture advection continues from the south, thunderstorms are expected to rapidly expand over north-central KS over the next hour, eventually extending from central KS into southern NE along the approaching upstream cold front. Little movement is expected with the frontal boundary along the NE/IA border until the upstream cold front nears around 10Z. Impressive 850 mb winds of 60-70 kt over eastern KS and 35-50 kt in southern IA will be of a similar direction to 850-300 mb steering flow, supporting periods of training and possible back-building of convection before the cluster progresses east, likely with a diminishing flash flood threat, possibly toward 12Z. Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr are expected with training and localized totals of 2-4 inches will be possible over the next 4-6 hours. These rainfall totals may support localized to scattered areas of flash flooding, especially if there is overlap with an earlier round of storms from Wednesday evening which produced 1-2 inches in a few locations. Otto ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6trWKO-9SwF5z9m0Tg4l-p9nw3ex7NSHPC9mgkL_-UZQ_ngEFCWoEli-ecBw4s0mfZVy= YfGlBmkYv841-Benk02Sq-E$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...GID...OAX...TOP... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 42759424 42689339 42239312 41579309 39789379=20 39089502 38729649 39049750 39649765 40389741=20 41219667 41969569=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .