Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0569
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Apr 20 2023 03:53:40

ACUS11 KWNS 200353
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200353=20
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-200600-

Mesoscale Discussion 0569
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1053 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2023

Areas affected...central into northeast Kansas and far southeast
Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 200353Z - 200600Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Storms are expected to persist across northeast Kansas,
with a rapid growth of a line of storms possible along a cold front.
Damaging winds and hail will be possible, and an additional watch
may be needed soon.

DISCUSSION...A line of storms continues to push east into northwest
MO, with additional cells persisting across northeast KS. In this
area, strong warm advection continues near and atop earlier outflow,
aiding lift with severe hail evident in ongoing cells.

Farther west, surface observations show a rapidly retreating dryline
into south-central KS, with southerly surface winds gusting well
over 30 kt and dewpoints into the lower 60s F. IR imagery clearly
shows the warming/theta-e return across KS.=20

Meanwhile, a strong cold front is surging across western KS and
southwest NE, with 50+ kt non-convective wind gusts. As this front
intercepts the moisture return, a rapid growth of storms producing
damaging gusts and hail will be possible. While SRH will remain
strong due to the low-level jet, the tornado risk should be brief at
best given the undercutting cold front. A conditional tornado risk
exists should a storm form ahead of the front, but capping is
expected to minimize that potential.

...Jewell/Guyer.. 04/20/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5XiC9Rrd8zVajen9smJoWa9N-BRXJRv0XxdqDxxA-Gn8f-AguZXaeWTNENwxwyORpuy0lsm8m=
M-N3DmrPKLwi8gEjbU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

LAT...LON   38189824 38209890 38599901 39019889 39379854 39969798
            40579655 40509579 40119542 39579502 39119512 38719559
            38279767 38189824=20


=3D =3D =3D
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