Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Apr 20 2023 00:50:37 ACUS01 KWNS 200050 SWODY1 SPC AC 200048 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2023 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHEAST KANSAS...SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST MISSOURI...AND SOUTHWEST IOWA... ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL OK INTO NORTHWEST TX... ....SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of scattered severe thunderstorms are expected tonight across the Mid-Missouri Valley into the southern Plains. Very large hail is likely, and significant severe wind gusts along with a few tornadoes will be possible. ....Central Plains into the Midwest... Several supercells are ongoing this evening from eastern KS into southeast NE and western IA. Steep midlevel lapse rates, moderate buoyancy, and sufficient deep-layer shear (as noted on the 00Z OAX and TOP soundings) will continue to support supercells and organized clusters this evening, with a threat of very large hail and severe gusts. An increasing low-level jet will also support the threat for a couple tornadoes, with any supercells that can persist through the evening. Later tonight, renewed storm development is expected from north-central KS into central NE, in association with a midlevel shortwave trough currently moving across the central High Plains. This convection will post-frontal and likely somewhat elevated, but steep midlevel lapse rates and strengthening effective shear will support hail (possibly very large) with the strongest storms. Some threat for severe/damaging gusts will also likely develop overnight as upscale growth into one or more forward-propagating clusters occurs. ....Southern Plains... Intense supercells are ongoing across central OK this evening, with multiple reports of very large hail and a couple of possible tornadoes reported. Moderate-to-strong buoyancy and strong deep-layer shear will continue to support organized convection through the evening, with some weakening expected later tonight as MLCINH increases with time. Very large hail will continue to be a threat. Also, the OUN VWP has shown notable strengthening of low-level flow/shear, which will support a tornado threat with any sustained supercell, including a conditional risk of a strong tornado. ...Dean.. 04/20/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .