Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Apr 19 2023 23:29:55

AWUS01 KWNH 192329
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-200300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0197
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
728 PM EDT Wed Apr 19 2023

Areas affected...Southeastern NE...Southwestern IA...Northeastern
KS...Far Northwestern MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 192328Z - 200300Z

Summary...Hourly rainfall rates of 1.0-1.5 inches may result in
2-3 hour localized totals of 2-3 inches. Isolated instances of
flash flooding are possible.

Discussion...An area of low pressure is gradually lifting
northeastward across eastern NE and into northwestern IA this
evening, as an associated cold front extending southward comes
nearly to a stall. It's here (across southeastern NE, southwestern
IA, northeastern KS, and far northwestern MO) that discrete cells
may briefly train/repeat over the next several hours, producing as
much as 2-3" of rainfall over a 2-3 hour period. While antecedent
conditions in this region are rather dry (per NASA SPoRT-LIS 0-40
cm soil moisture at or below the 10-20th percentile), this amount
of rainfall may still cause localized flash flooding (as the dry
soil may limit effective infiltration intially, and corresponding
flash flood guidance is as low as 1.5-2.0" over a 3-hr period).
Convection is already beginning to proliferate across the region,
and covective growth is expected to continue with cooling cloud
tops and above-anvil cirrus plumes evident via GOES-East infrared
imagery. In addition, the mesoscale enviorment is characterized by
precipitable water values of 1.0-1.2 inches (near the 90th
percentile per TOP sounding climatology), 1500-2500 J/kg of ML
CAPE, and 30-50 kts of effective bulk shear. Thunderstorms are
already resulting in rainfall rates of up to 1.0-1.5"/hr (per MRMS
estimates), and localized training of these rates may lead to
isolated instances of flash flooding.

Churchill

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!65oVJUTbzEPfMZo3MhJzEIrVZ26Cmg1nMAyr5paAJzQT53x2A-9uiGaXG_jJLiswEy1q=
_tIvReTJocZxV2eP61rXKLA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   42179474 41279396 40129459 39089569 39089686=20
            39699686 40629637 41569622 42139631=20

=3D =3D =3D
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