Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0562
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Apr 19 2023 22:16:04

ACUS11 KWNS 192216
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192215=20
KSZ000-200015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0562
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0515 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2023

Areas affected...Eastern Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 192215Z - 200015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms developing along a dryline in
central Kansas may pose a large hail/damaging wind threat this
evening across eastern parts of the state. Trends will be monitored
for a possible watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, an isolated, but intensifying,
thunderstorm has developed along the dryline draped through central
KS. GOES visible imagery shows a few additional towers developing
along the boundary to the north of this cell. Although the more
robust cell has shown signs of steady intensification, it is
developing on the northern periphery of higher-quality low-level
moisture to the south and stronger forcing for ascent closer to the
surface low to the north across eastern NE. Given the weak forcing
for ascent and 30-40 knot effective bulk shear orthogonal to the
dryline, a couple of supercells appear possible with an attendant
large hail/severe wind threat. This activity should gradually
propagate east/northeastward into the southern portions of WW 145,
and the sporadic nature of the convection makes it unclear whether
the threat coverage is sufficient for an additional watch. Trends
will continue to be monitored over the next few hours.

...Moore/Guyer.. 04/19/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9cjEpSeSyCTxP17WCcdlclozL8LxJL8qxwvLrUmSbC_mv4lSJrpUXES4iw8im6vnV2RossOQy=
XqNdwZf5kSr8KdIgVk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   37869797 38399770 38799746 39089481 38719471 37889487
            37759571 37529718 37519791 37869797=20


=3D =3D =3D
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