Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0561
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Apr 19 2023 20:57:33

ACUS11 KWNS 192057
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192057=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-192300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0561
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0357 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2023

Areas affected...Portions of southwestern and south-central Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 192057Z - 192300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Conditional severe threat increasing. Potential for
supercells with large hail and a couple tornadoes late afternoon
into the evening. A watch will be possible in the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...A conditional severe threat is increasing across
portions of southwestern and south-central Oklahoma. A surface
dryline continues to mix eastward across Oklahoma and Texas. Ahead
of the dryline, mid 60s dew points have moved north of the Red River
across southern Oklahoma. 19z RAOB from OUN indicates moistening and
a weakening cap beneath an elevated mixed layer with steep lapse
rates (around 8 C/km). Temperatures have warmed into the 80s with
strong daytime heating, with MLCAPE around 2500-3000 J/kg. Further
indication of the weakening cap can be seen in satellite, as cumulus
fields continue to show increasing development. The 19z OUN RAOB and
surface objective analysis also indicate deep layer shear around
35-40 kts. The main risk with any initial storm development would be
large hail, given steep lapse rates. As the main wave approaches
from the west with deepening low pressure across the Central Plains,
850 mb flow will increase through the evening, further elongating
hodographs and increasing risk of a couple tornadoes. Trends will be
monitored closely with a watch will be possible within few hours.

...Thornton/Grams.. 04/19/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-wk6skoK9Km-yEBKflSnlvyPGeC0d_JW7PjD2756PaU_6TI8w0KE5Ks1slH1GyJE51aarSs-J=
kM6YrdS4m9f5zP98BU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   34169733 33999757 33929774 33909784 33949796 34139818
            34159835 34089846 34129855 34299871 34439874 34669876
            35169828 35299807 35399786 35499766 35529759 35589739
            35519695 35349683 35099688 34989692 34669705 34509713
            34239726 34169733=20


=3D =3D =3D
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