Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0560
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Apr 19 2023 19:46:35

ACUS11 KWNS 191946
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191945=20
MOZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-192215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0560
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0245 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2023

Areas affected...Far Southeast SD...Far Southwest MN...Far Eastern
NE...Western IA...Northeast KS...Northwest MO

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 191945Z - 192215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is anticipated across the Mid MO
Valley later this afternoon. These storms will be capable of all
severe hazards, including tornadoes and very large hail. Multiple
watches will be needed to address this threat over the region.

DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a low about 25 miles
west of LNK in southeast NE. A warm front extends northward from
this low into more of east-central NE and then back eastward across
central IA. Additionally, a cold front extends southwestward back
through central KS to a triple point north of Medicine Lodge KS
(P28). Visible satellite imagery has shown a trend towards
increasingly agitated cumulus ahead of the surface low across
eastern NE and downstream within the warm sector across IA.
Temperatures have now reached the low to mid 70s across much of the
warm sector, with dewpoints generally in the upper 50s to low 60s.=20

Expectation is for modest heating to continue for the next few hours
while the surface low shifts eastward and the warm front gradually
lifts north. Resulting destabilization coupled with mesoscale ascent
will likely result in thunderstorm initiation in and around the
surface low and perhaps along the cold front into northeast KS.
Steep lapse rate environment will support strong buoyancy and the
potential for large to very large hail, particularly with initial
development. A corridor of higher tornado risk appears possible near
the warm front, where backed surface winds are more likely. Given
the initially discrete storm mode, some tornado risk is anticipated
ahead of the cold front and surface low as well.=20

Thunderstorm may also develop north of the warm front as warm-air
advection increases, with some potential for already developed
storms to cross this boundary as well. Given the elevated character
of these storms, hail will be the primary severe risk.

...Mosier/Grams.. 04/19/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5H5_nJLVuLV_lsrETdG42v1r_NfouZu30_fBeDbffOedZcEkSMwGv4Vo4pdeROfiAItjuoQRy=
BeK_j1xZjnv07flIc8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   38319520 38499658 39109707 39669707 40929697 42339677
            43039674 43439649 43649590 43649525 43429461 42899419
            41589387 40159369 38679406 38319520=20


=3D =3D =3D
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