Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0559
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Apr 19 2023 19:42:35

ACUS11 KWNS 191942
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191942=20
ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-192145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0559
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0242 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2023

Areas affected...Northern Illinois to southern Wisconsin

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 191942Z - 192145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms ongoing and developing within a strong warm
air advection regime will likely continue to pose a severe hail
threat for the next few hours. Watch issuance is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...A convective band across southern WI has maintained
intensity over the past hour per GOES IR imagery. Additionally, new
cell development is noted across northern IL in the vicinity of a
surface warm front. Strong lift across this region is being driven
by a deep zone of isentropic ascent, which is expected to continue
through the next few hours ahead of the approaching upper wave to
the west. MUCAPE across the region is expected to remain near
1000-2000 J/kg as differential warm advection in the 850-700 mb
layer maintains steep mid-level lapse rates. With effective bulk
shear near 40-45 knots, organized convection will remain possible
and may pose an isolated large hail risk. While more isolated
discrete cells/clusters are probable to the south of the convective
band across WI, storm longevity remains questionable given observed
lifespans of recent cells. The band itself is expected to gradually
migrate east/southeast over the next few hours, and will continue to
pose at least a transient hail threat as stronger updrafts embedded
within the line develop.

...Moore/Grams.. 04/19/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!85mUkruUH0_IdZlib32Q2p_ZsFt1NwoOOfpZ3Db1DUyXOw8Mg6BxuCApVPJ8EiWEGIZj2qbs5=
IJnlsllXA_bpmo9BBg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...

LAT...LON   40519020 41459036 43399044 43898962 43718815 43548781
            42558762 40638823 40018886 40108971 40519020=20


=3D =3D =3D
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