Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0558
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Apr 19 2023 16:49:03

ACUS11 KWNS 191648
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191648=20
ILZ000-191845-

Mesoscale Discussion 0558
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1148 AM CDT Wed Apr 19 2023

Areas affected...West-Central/Central IL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 191648Z - 191845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated large hail is possible across central IL for the
next hour or two.

DISCUSSION...A narrow band of elevated thunderstorms has recently
developed across west-central IL, supported by persistent warm-air
advection attendant to the low-level jet stretching from AR/OK into
the Mid MS Valley. The downstream airmass will likely remain stable
throughout the boundary layer for at least the next few hours.
However, the low-level jet is expected to persist, contributing to
enough low- to mid-level moistening to reduce the convective
inhibition, allowing for storm persistence and/or redevelopment. 12Z
ILX sounding and more recent forecast soundings show a notable layer
of dry air above the LCL, and there is some potential for related
dry-air entrainment to limit overall updraft strength and
persistence. Even so, steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate
vertical shear will support hail with the ongoing storms and any
additional development over the next hour or two.

...Mosier/Grams.. 04/19/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!630vZtQX1Lx-3_EIUG2jdDfck523Yh5BxWacf8YJRvS5-lgivPZJ6iZMc1ZnkteEL6MHkqb84=
Je2dfyqrh1OlUm_vUo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...

LAT...LON   40369055 41149007 41538916 41378850 41038832 40668827
            40258853 39928919 39589001 39589097 40369055=20


=3D =3D =3D
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